Saturday, January 17, 2009

Conference Champions Are Anyone's Guess

To a casual football fan, the last few games have been exciting. To an avid fan, they've been eye opening. To a Cowboys fan, they've been painful. After a regular season that saw both players and officials amidst controversy, the playoffs looked to be that much more exciting. Thus far, they have certainly not disappointed.

Let's get serious. No one expected San Diego to make the postseason, let alone win a game. No one expected Arizona or Philadelphia to win, let alone win twice, and now the two teams are set to face off for a trip to the big dance. And while Pittsburgh was a virtual lock for the playoffs from the beginning, some figured the Titans would ride their wave of success all the way to at least a showdown in the Steel City. Now they are left to watch as the Ravens try to make the third time the charm and punch their ticket to Tampa Bay. If the regular season and previous playoff games were any indication, these two games will prove that any team really can win on any given Sunday.

The more surprsing matchup of the two may also be one-sided. Yes, I understand that the Eagles shouldn't even be here and that they have played well in the post-season, but I wouldn't make them a sure pick to win. While their defense has been on the past two weeks, and their offense hasn't totally fallen apart, they have been known to come up short in big games. Before beating the Falcons to advance to Super Bowl XXXIX, they had fallen in the three previous NFC Championship contests. Even worse, they failed to capture the crown as they fell to the New England Patriots that year.

While it can be argued that those teams are not the same as the current team, this year's club hasn't necessarily been dominant on either side of the ball. Donovan McNabb has only a 74.0 passer rating in the playoffs, and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Brian Westbrook has been virtually shut down in both games, gaining only 74 yards on the ground and only scoring one touchdown. Still, despite these lackluster numbers by the two main weapons, the Eagles keep finding ways to win. The defense hasn't been exceptional, aside from Asante Samuel, but they are doing enough to win games. Despite this recent success, they will have to seriously step it up against a Cardinals team that has been playing out of its mind the past two weeks.

If there was any doubt about the Cardinals' ability in the post-season, it is gone now. Kurt Warner, who resurrected his career this season, hasn't slowed down in the playoffs. Throwing four touchdowns and boasting a 93.9 passer rating have certainly helped Arizona open some eyes. Larry Fitzgerald has been Warner's favorite target, gaining 267 receiving yards. Combine this with a healthy Anquan Boldin and two backs who have rushed for more yards than the entire Eagles team, and you have one scary opponent. This is a team that took the Falcons to the limit, and won. And the same team that walked all over the heavily favored Panthers, while holding them to just 13 points (without Boldin, no less). And as if their offense wasn't scary enough, the defense has been just as impressive. Forcing two fumbles, getting five sacks, and coming away with seven interceptions all helped the Cardinals prove that they are for real.

While many are writing this off as a game that doesn't mean much, it should be a good one. This NFC Championship game pits two teams with a myriad of weapons on offense, talented players on defense, and that have been on fire the past two weeks. So if you're expecting to see a throw away game, you'll definitely be surprised.

The AFC Championship game, although not a surprise, is not an easy pick. Two teams that know one another very well in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, are set to face off one more time. Although the Steelers won both of the regular season games, that should only motivate the Ravens that much more. This game is essentially a battle of two outstanding defenses, numbers one and two respectively, against two not-so-great offenses. As per usual with these teams, it will come down to one big play. Whether it's a long pass or run, or a key fourth quarter turnover, that's all it will take. No matter who wins (go Ravens), one thing is for sure: it's going to be a good old time slobberknocker.

With the league's top defense, the Steelers should feel very confident going into this game. This confidence should be amplified by the fact that they defeated the Ravens twice already this year. But the Steelers aren't going to look past this game. Expect that number one defense to show up and do what it has done all year: shut down opposing offenses, and create plays for its own. With the Defensive Player of the Year (James Harrison), along with many other big names patrolling the field, scoring points won't be easy for the Ravens. However, keeping the Steelers off the scoreboard to stay in the game may be an easier task (relatively speaking).

Although Willie Parker is back and ready to go, the real key to Pittsburgh's offense will be Ben Roethlisberger. While his game against the Chargers was one of his best performances this year, the Steelers can't be sure if that Ben will be on the field. If he is, advantage Steelers. If the Big Ben who was around for most of the year arrives, though, Mr. Momentum could shift his weight in a hurry. If he can minimize his mistakes, it's going to be a long day for the Ravens defense. If he can't, this game could get ugly fast.

Whether or not the Big Ben that romped San Diego shows up, the Ravens defense will not have any easy day. As if facing the Steelers with a healthy Willie Parker wasn't enough, they may have to do it without Samari Rolle, and possibly Terrell Suggs. Still, facing this number two defense will be no easy task. Led by Ray Lewis and arguably the second best defensive player this year, Ed Reed, the Ravens managed to snag four sacks, force four fumbles, and come away with five interceptions this post-season. Despite having some guys banged up, expect the Ravens to come out in full force, with plenty of capable players filling the gaps. Causing offensive miscues, and avoiding miscues of their own, will be imperative. Some Ravens may be down, but they are certainly not out. Don't expect a high score for either team.

With the three headed monster of McClain, Rice and McGahee on the ground; and Mason, Clayton and Heap in the air, the Ravens have plenty of weapons. But if the wild card for Pittsburgh is Big Ben, Baltimore's is definitely Joe Flacco. While he hasn't put up stellar numbers in the playoffs, he has found ways to keep his team in the game. Also he has not been sacked, and has yet to throw an interception. However, being in an AFC title game in your rookie season is no picnic, especially when you're facing the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. But the key to his success will be his confidence. If he can keep his composure and keep the ball on his side, this game will stay close. If John Harbaugh can trust Flacco with the ball, and Flacco can trust himself, then we're going to see a heck of a game.

I said this during the baseball playoffs, and I'm going to say it again: No matter who wins these games, these are going to be great games. In the NFC, two teams that have gone under the radar look to prove themselves. In the AFC, two rivals square off one last time before the big dance. I'm telling you, these are two games you do not want to miss. The last two weeks have seen some of the most entertaining action all year, and the Conference Championships will be no exception. It's expected to be an exciting day for football, and these four teams will certainly not disappoint.

Pat
The Trio

No comments:

Post a Comment